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John Wall, Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner - Remember 2010?

John Wall hasn't had the best pro career thus far after being drafted number one out of Kentucky two years ago. He's highly turnover-prone with a pretty bad jump shot, he's a mediocre defender, he plays out of control, and he hasn't been able to vault the Wizards out of the cellar. It was clear that, two years ago, he was the better prospect than Evan Turner, and that's why ET fell to the Sixers at 2. It's been said numerous times on this blog and elsewhere that it's a good thing we didn't get the #1, and weren't (essentially) forced to take Wall because he was there.

To this day, that isn't true. John Wall was, and is, the best player to come out of the 2010 NBA Draft. Greg Monroe has been surprisingly great, Ed Davis has shown potential, Gordon Hayward is adorable, DeMarcus Cousins seems like a smart guy, but J-Wall is definitely the tits of the class. If you've forgotten what made him so good coming out of school, read this Draft Express profile of him to refresh your memory. Whether he ever realizes his otherworldly potential is one thing, but the fact is, based on talent and results from his freshman year at UK, he was the guy everyone would have picked at the top spot.

Star-divide

Jrue Holiday, meanwhile, came off an unfortunate freshman season at UCLA the year before where he played off-guard to senior Darren Collison's wait-you're-still-here point. He fell all the way to the Sixers at #17, who opted for size and defense over the quickness and scoring of UNC stud Ty Lawson. The 2009 Year of the Point Guard has been highly debated, but there's no question that the Sixers got tremendous value with their pick, even if Lawson (extremely debatable) may have/still will be the better player.

What I just wanted to take a quick second to comment on, and get your thoughts about, was the idea that, in retrospect, it's good that the Sixers didn't come away from last year's draft with John Wall. Evan Turner, who hasn't been stellar in his first 1.25 seasons but has shown marked improvement and the potential to be a very good basketball player, was the better takeaway because he plays a different position and has not been as high-volume ineffective as Wall has been thus far. This, also, is not true. Turner could be great. I love him and hope to whatever basketball gods exist that he becomes Paul Pierce/Brandon Roy/whatever and wins a bunch of rings and happily ever after, etc. Same with Jrue. He's lovely, he has a ton of potential on the court, and he's got nowhere to go but up in spite of a not-so-great start to the 2012 season.

But make no mistake about it. If the Sixers got the #1 pick, they would have drafted Wall, and it would have been the right decision. Whether or not Holiday would have been traded or moved to off-guard or kept as a backup, we'll never know. Holiday had been coming off a nice rookie campaign that didn't really ask much of him but immediately made him the lovechild of all Sixers fans, especially us. But he hadn't shown nearly enough to pass up on a prospect whose potential matched, or in some places surpassed, that of Derrick Rose. And I'm saying this now in spite of the fact that, statistically, Jrue has bested Wall in every area short of Assist Rate. I would still trade either Jrue or Evan straight up for Wall, and would give serious consideration to trading both of them for him (although ultimately decline). Please try not to be blinded by your Sixers fandom when you think about these players. In terms of ability, it's not close.

Wall has unfortunately been placed on one of the worst teams in the league, with virtually no chemistry, defense, or collective IQ to speak of. He's surrounded by high volume shooters (Nick Young), idiots (Andray Blatche), and people named Shelvin (Mack), which is unfortunate because he's still a once-in-a-decade talent that can do things on a basketball court only 3 or 4 people can do in the world. Hopefully, for his sake, the Wizards can build a decent team around the kid at some point. At age 21, he shouldn't be forced to carry this kind of load. Turner doesn't have a shred of the responsibility Wall carries each time on the court and that's a very good thing for him.

If you're looking at the first two seasons of John Wall's career and declaring him a bad draft pick, or thanking our lucky stars that we don't have him, write yourself a letter to be opened in three years. See how you still feel about it then. The fact is, as much as we can joke about it, the NBA is a superstar's league. Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner will never be the best players in their positions, even if they become great players.

John Wall does have that potential. He's a franchise player in a time where the Point Guard Renaissance has never been flourishing more. Combining his ability to get to the rim with his tremendous passing skills, there's still a good chance that he finds himself in company with Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Derrick Rose. And to think that he's not worth that gamble because the Sixers already had a point guard who had averaged 8 points and 4 assists is extremely short-sighted homerism.

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Comments

If you’re not a Sixer, you can’t be a BUST!!!

Seriously, say what you will about the Dougy’s in-game management skills (like benching Turner for the entire third quarter last night), he has wrung way more than expected out of a roster with as little real high-end talent as he has to work with.

I know Jordan thought Jennings was Iverson-esque, while I thought he was more BOSS-y. To me, Wall is more Iverson-esque. I don’t know if he fits into every roster or every scheme, but his raw ability is unquestionable. For me, like Iverson, he needs to really have a roster built around him, to support him and take advantage of his skill set. And the reason the Whiz suck as they do is that they have exactly the wrong personnel around Wall.

If you remember, the Iverson Sixers sucked until Larry Brown was able to build a roster of guys who “play the right way.” Then they were suddenly in the Finals. I’m not sure there’s one player on the Wiz I would think compliments Wall properly…Blatche? McGee? Young?

I said it over at NBAPlaybook and I’ll say it again, I can’t properly evaluate Wall until he plays with a group of teammates with a collective IQ greater than a butterflies.

I would have, without question, taken Wall #1 and still would, and seen whether Jrue could play off guard. With how he’s developed as a shooter, I think a Wall/Jrue/Iguodala trio actually may have been able to work.

Yeah I would’ve been totally fine putting Wall and Jrue together in the backcourt.

FWIW, Collins has used Jrue as an off guard a ton as it is (with either Iguodala or Lou initiating the offense.) I think he could have done well next to Wall. The bigger issue would be that neither Iggy or Wall can shoot.

similar to j/t/i …

It’s funny that the Bucks beat the Heat. Funnier that both teams shot sub 40 percent. (Bucks won and shot 35%)

how high do you guys think ET’s and Jrue’s ceilings are?

i knw the post does a good job explaining this, just want to see what the majority of other people think of these two

I posted this earlier (at DF) in a discussiion about Love (Kevin):

10- best in game (Lebron), gets you 60 wins with almost any team
9- franchise player (CP3) Can get you 60 wins with a good squad and 45 wins if healthy on a bad team
8- All Star but only a piece of the puzzle. LOVE. A team can be terrible despite his great play.
7- Near All Star. A great peice to have on a winning team (Iguodala)
6- Good player, can be a star on a given night but either major holes or major inconsistency (Jrue right now.)

Future:
Jrue 7, maybe 7.5 if you are wearing Sixers glasses.
ET possible 7 (more likely 6.5)
Young 6-6.5
Wall could be an 8.5. More likely an 8.

And I think Evan has the higher ceiling than Jrue because of his ability to create for himself better right now. He also plays better defense right now too.

Al Horford

i need some updates please, hes on my fantasy team. Is he out for the rest of the season?

Yeah he’s done.

The Sixers were not in a position to draft John Wall. Therefore I don’t see the point of having a “are we better off with Wall or Turner?” argument. But in regards to Wall, he’s a guy that’s going to need time to mature, better teammates, and (most importantly) better coaching to achieve his potential, and time will tell whether he does. I certainly think he has a chance, but I’m not at all convinced that’s a sure thing. A guy can have all the talent in the world, but if he doesn’t develop a great head for the game, he’s not going to be a great PG, and for every fantastic natural talent for whom it eventually clicks, there’s a guy who never achieves his potential. Stephon Marbury and Sebastian Telfair were also tremendous athletes with fantastic passing skills and neither ever amounted to much.

More relevant is the “should we have drafted Turner or Favors/Cousins/etc.” question, and that one’s still open (though the Sixers don’t look to be doing too badly right now). Then there’s the 2011 draft. I don’t remember a lot of people liking the Vucevic pick, with many screaming that he would be out of the league within a couple years and that they should have taken Kenneth Faried, Chris Singleton, etc., but so far it looks like the Sixers made the right choice.

John Wall is a beast. Hes right where Rose was after his first year in the league where teams just play off him cause hes so fast and you know if he gets a consistent jumpshot he’ll be unstoppable.

In comparison Wall actually is a better passer and is faster straight line with the basketball. but Rose has more of a knack for getting to the rim and finishing.

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