Jrue Holiday is 21 years old and the point guard of the future for the Philadelphia 76ers. The potential he possesses – both offensively and defensively – is among the highest in the league as far as young point guards are concerned. That said, his struggles on the offensive side of the ball have been a bit concerning.
Looking at last night's advanced box score via Hoop Data highlight the concerns I've had with Jrue all season. He tied for a team-high 17 points, but it took him 15 shots to get there. Of his 15 shots, eight were of the long two variety – the least efficient shot in basketball. Conversely, Jrue only attempted three shots at the rim and shot one free throw.
Ranking 19 of 30 in true shooting percentage among starting point guards, Jrue needs to become a more efficient player, and due so by attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line more often. Of the 30 starting point guards Jrue is 14th in usage rate (percentage of offensive possessions used by player), but 19th in attempts at the rim and 29th in free throw rate. To add insult to injury, Jrue ranks eighth in long two point attempts.
His shot selection isn't his only deficiency this season as he ranks 25 of 30 among starting point guards in assist-to-turnover ratio.
I'm fully aware of all the counter arguments and excuses. Jrue's only 21! Small sample size! Yeah, but he's making 46% of his long two pointers! He doesn't get as many assists because the team is full of great set-up men! None of these statements are false, but the fact remains that Jrue has been relatively inefficient this season and has taken on the role, more often than not, as the dreaded shoot-first point guard.
It's not a matter of ability. I know Jrue can be a great set-up man, because I've seen stretches where he distributed brilliantly. I also know he's capable of attacking the basket, because I've seen some tremendous takes, utilizing his body control and change-of-pace quickness.
Because Jrue has improved his jumper tremendously in three seasons, he's fallen in love with it, but in order for him to continue to develop properly and the team to succeed, he needs to cut down on the long two pointers and become average at drawing fouls, at least.
Maybe I expect too much out of the 21 year-old, but this is his third season and I've yet to see any improvement offensively.
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0 recs | 42 comments
I disagree. He hasn’t shown improvement in his offensive output, but he’s certainly shown improvement in certain offensive skills (most notably the long 2)
Not that you want him focusing so much on shooting long two’s, but I do value the skill as one to have in his arsenal. He’s just featuring it too much.
Derek Bodner - January 24, 2012
Agree that’s he’s improved his jumper and that it’s a valuable weapon, but that doesn’t negate the lack of improvement – in some cases regression – in other areas.
Jordan Sams - January 24, 2012
Again, why I think there’s a difference between “not seeing any improvement offensively” and “not seeing an overall improvement in offensive effectiveness”
Derek Bodner - January 24, 2012
It's good that this Sixer team can finally make the 3 ball. Now Jrue needs to work on his inside game.
We’ve seen flashes. The good thing is he is 21. And he is no where near his peak. Yet he is still playing good enough for us to win.
TitansJonne - January 24, 2012
I agree, while his long J looks better, it’s not really where you want to see a non-college grad age player spending all his time, especially at the point.
And btw, whoever spouted “players are who they are by their 3rd year, and don’t really develop much after that” must come from a different world then the rest of rational society. Take baseball or hockey for a second (football is a bad example because careers are so overwhelmingly short). Prime years in baseball are 28-32, and the more difficult positions (like point guard is in basketball) tend to take even longer, catchers for example, don’t hit their peak until closer to 29/30. In hockey, you’re generally looking at 5 years experience in the NHL before you hit your peak. The only exception to this in either of those sports (or in basketball) are those once in a generation talents which we know Jrue isn’t (he’s never going to be Wilt/Gretzky/Babe). And that’s ok. Jrue could be a multi time all-star, it’s not going to be this year, and probably not next year, but that doesn’t mean we should lose faith, improvement is improvement. Like how my son grows in uneven spurts, here’s hoping that’s also the case with Jrue!
Supra98x - January 24, 2012
Actually, I agree with “players are who they are”, but it’s by their 4th year. Look at last year’s all star team, for example. Most of the guys were stars by their 3rd year. Kobe, Allen, and Joe Johnson all made another leap in their 4th year, but they were all already good by their 3rd year. Very very few players make a jump in the middle of their career. Mid-level guys sometimes have career years in their “prime years”, but they don’t jump tiers.
duckyninja - January 24, 2012
I’m not going to buy into that “Tier” concept as I think it’s too subjective…
Let me give examples:
Allen Iverson – Best year – 29 or 30 (debatable because of the drop in steals)
Compared to his average between year 3 and 5, which btw were after YEARS at Georgetown,
Biggest differences – .20+ in shooting percentage (7% improvement), Assists +3 more a game (75% improvement)
Ok, so let’s say that’s a fluke…
An even stronger example to support my opinion is Steve Nash, he didn’t hit double digits in points until his 5th season, and didn’t “peak” until age 32… That’s food for thought.
Another example: Stockton, not as good an example, but I’ll present it none-the-less… He sucked (more or less) his first 3 years, and he didn’t come into the league until age 22… Things really took off in year 4-5-6, his peak was sort-of flat, and you could argue his peak year was age 26, his 5th year in the league (or it could have been his 7th year at age 28).
Continuing…
Jason Kidd – wouldn’t have been considered elite at the earliest until his 5th year in the league (good assist numbers before then but couldn’t shoot for shit)
I’m rambling, my point is, there are plenty of great guards who took time to develop.
Supra98x - January 24, 2012
And just to follow that up, we’re now drafting kids (and i mean that literally) in the hopes of being able to develop them, the problem is in college, coaches have all the power, and can literally ruin a players career, but in the pro’s, with all that money, most players don’t accept proper coaching, and aren’t learning. Each of those players I cited had years of college growth and development in top flight programs, Jrue hasn’t had any of that, but with DC and the attitude on this team as presently constructed, he’s learning, it might take some time, but nothing in his game has lead me to believe he won’t improve, the question is just how much.
Supra98x - January 24, 2012
Pretty sure I got lambasted for saying this a few weeks ago. He’s been bad this year. Among qualified players, he’s tied for 45th in A/48. 45th. Among qualified Sixers, he’s 3rd (behind Lou and Iggy). Among qualified players, Lou is 5th in A/TO. Among qualified Sixers, Holiday is 4th (behind Lou, Andre, and Turner). He’s first on the team in FGA but 99th out of 113 qualified players in PPS. On the Sixers, he’s only ahead of Battie and Brackins in PPS. That’s it. He hasn’t been “relatively inefficient”. He’s sucked as a distributor (too many turnovers and not enough assists) and he’s sucked as a scorer (extremely low PPS).
I get it. He has potential. He might be good on defense (I don’t have access to any trustworthy defensive stats, but it seems like he struggles against PGs with elite quickness). But he’s been flat-out bad this year, and if we want to actually be competitive, some of his minutes need to go to Lou and a few to Turner. Both have just been better than him this season. Period. If we want to keep waiting for him to make “the leap”, which he’s showing no signs of right now, keep him in.
duckyninja - January 24, 2012
I’m not sure who on this site hasn’t been saying he’s been pretty bad all year.
Derek Bodner - January 24, 2012
You didn’t get lambasted because you said he is playing bad this year. You were lambasted because you said (and continue to say) that Lou Williams should be starting over Jrue.
The Mad Hopper - January 24, 2012
People need to stop lambasting in public.
Michael Levin - January 24, 2012
they call me mr. lambastic, very fantastic.
/Shaggy’d
jefu - January 24, 2012
I love this
Michael Levin - January 24, 2012
I prefer to lambast the (Noce)turkey in its own juices, and usually with butter rubbed into the skin :)
dweebowitz - January 24, 2012
mmmmmm Noceturkey…….
Michael Levin - January 24, 2012
Jrue may not be a PG
why not slide Jrue to SG and let Evan play PG? Since Jrue’s jumper is improved and Turner does well with the ball in his hands?
Dan Pearson - January 24, 2012
No
Michael Levin - January 24, 2012
Jrue has struggled off the ball his entire life. Ask UCLA.
Naismithball - January 24, 2012
Considering he played off the ball a bit in AAU ball and is playing off the ball quite a bit now, that’s not true at all.
Derek Bodner - January 24, 2012
It is a slight exaggeration, but there’s no denying he has struggled in the past while playing without the ball.
Naismithball - January 24, 2012
I Recall Another Sixer Shoot-First Point Guard
I wonder what his stats are like in comparison to that fool that was too good to practice.
Mighty Blue Star - January 24, 2012
Right bc Allen Iverson was terrible
You do realize “that fool” is probably a first ballot hall of famer right?
I know the hivemind mindset of this blog is that FG% is all the matters in deciding the greatness of a player, but there are clearly exceptions. Iverson is one of them
highwaterhello - January 24, 2012
Allen Iverson is the biggest anomaly of all time.
Michael Levin - January 24, 2012
I'll second this.
In the last 25+ years (since before I was alive at least), only one other PG has finished the season as the scoring champion (Wade), and Wade still has 40 pounds and 4 or 5 inches on Iverson, which highlights just how special he was.
His cause was also helped by the fact that the Sixers didn’t have any other reliable scorers on the team and consistently fed the entire offense through Iverson to win games, so he didn’t need to be efficient to score a ton of points.
teezy33 - January 24, 2012
Yes
Allen Iverson is probably a first ballot Hall of Famer. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t selfish.
Mighty Blue Star - January 24, 2012
Well of course he was selfish
Who else had anywhere near the talent that he did? He was surrounded by mediocre talent. E. Snow, Van Horn, Coleman, Raja Bell, Lynch, MacCulloch, Geiger, Bell, Buford, Jones, Ollie, Green, a washed-up Webber, Ivey, Ratliff.
Who on that list stands out as the guy Iverson should have been dishing to?
I left off McKie and Mutumbo for a reason, as they were his main targets.
The Mad Hopper - January 24, 2012
http://www.nba.com/sixers/video/2012/01/24/120123ace-1976223
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYO4zLY-Nag
What’s the deal with the whole “Ace of Spades” thing in the Sixers video section? Does every team have it or is it just something that Doug said once & they are running with?
pb111 - January 24, 2012
Doug didnt’’say it once, he gives one out after every game. It’s basically an “award” Doug gives out after every game to his player of the game.
Derek Bodner - January 24, 2012
Jrue
Jrue has the foundation for becoming better than chauncey billups in his prime kind of PG, an all-star and a fringe superstar but he needs to stop being the big time scorer and focus more on developing his passing game and his inside game. Against the Hawks Jrue was a fantastic facilitator and had his best game this season.
On a another note, those looking for a go to scorer, Kyrie Irving is scoring 20 ppg. Trade anybody?
Phila76er9 - January 24, 2012
watching knicks/bobcats game right now. Both teams look terrible – Bobcats definitely take the cake for more terrible.
jefu - January 24, 2012
I certainly want Sixers committed to a starting 1,2,3 of Jrue, ET, Dre. for years to come. Lou and m33ks are nice complementary pieces. That being said: imagine if each of the aforementioned players was having the same season, but the team was only hovering around .500. I suspect that there would be a lot of heated debate about the future backcourt. With many people saying trade Dre. for a pure young PG ((Ty Lawson?) and move Jrue and ET to the 2 and 3. Others would prefer we trade Jrue for a SG and move ET to the point. I guess my only point is that if we weren’t winning, we wouldn’t accept a future backcourt of Jrue/ET/Dre. And Jrue’s performance would be to blame. But, alas, we are kicking butt, so all is great in SixerLand
Blunt Philly Guy - January 24, 2012 via iPhone app
The idea that the Sixers would even consider moving Jrue Holiday away from the point guard spot is ludicrous. It simply will not happen.
Michael Levin - January 24, 2012
thats the problem
We all expect to much out of him. The word potential is thrown around way to often. How often do guys who have “potential” actually end up being all stars that do not show significant improvement in a period of time as long as 3 years.
phitePSEF - January 24, 2012 via mobile
wut
Michael Levin - January 24, 2012
huh...
phitePSEF - January 25, 2012
why
…do we have to put this guy in a box of being either a textbook point or having to play off the ball. Right now, he can do some of both pretty well. I’d like to see him continue to do both and keep rounding out his game. Especially with Turner as a fellow building block, Jrue shouldn’t be playing point 100% of the time. Although he takes some shots off the dribble early in games that might make some cringe, he hits a decent amount of them, and is slowly adding weapons to his arsenal.
In that big win in a close game in New Orleans, Jrue kocked down some very important catch and shoot 3’s from the corners and a couple of other spots on the floor.
And as a point guard, Jrue is about 2 years younger than ET, with far less ball handling experience in his lone year at college or in his first year in the NBA. If we let that thought settle in, there is still plenty to be optimistic about. I think Jrue will soon become the most valuable player on the team.
wannabgm - January 25, 2012
Ok…maybe I am bipolar….but Jrue took a long two in the 2nd quarter off the dribble early in the shot clock that he missed and I too cringed
still optimistic, though.
wannabgm - January 25, 2012
Point guard is one of the hardest positions to learn in the NBA, because you are expected to be a distributor first and a scorer second. The Sixers lack post-up players so there’s no one who’s a big target inside to set up. Doug’s offense is built on spreading the ball around to hit the open man, and when you swing the ball to get to the open man, the initial passes doesn’t get the assist.
In other words, if the Sixers had stronger inside players with post-up games, you would see more assists from Jrue and more driving opportunities for him as well. In addition the team has some pretty good passers and drivers in Iguodala, Williams and even Turner.
None of this means Jrue isn’t capable of being a great point guard. Right now he’s following the path of least resistance- other teams want him shooting that outside shot, not getting to the line or drawing fouls. So by working on his outside shot, he’s adding a skill that makes him a more effective player. As his shot becomes more accurate, defenders will have to stop ceding that shot, which will open up the driving lanes.
For the Sixers that’s fine. Our real weak links are in the PF and Center positions, and when Hawes was in they were winning games easily and Jrue had better games as well. The most important thing for Jrue is to work on his handle to minimize turnovers. He could learn a lot from watching a crafty guy like Andre Miller who knows how to be an effective point guard , even though he has less physical ability.
Good point guard instincts are hard to learn and I don’t see basic pick and rolls or give and go’s much if at all in Doug’s offense. That’s fine, their players aren’t the best at that type of game and it will take a lot of practice and repetition to get the players on the same page with that. It’s easier to pass to the open man for a trey and that’s the first step to opening up the floor.
RickoT - January 25, 2012
Word.
Agree with just about everything here, but I think I’m a bit more concerned than you about all those long 2s he’s taking. Iggy and Turner are finding lanes to the basket (Turner especially, gonna have to call him ‘And-1’ pretty soon – or ‘And-Evan’ ? something anyway – he’s not quite The Villain yet I don’t think). So Jrue should be able to almost if not just as well. Don’t think that’s asking too much.
J.P.Melle - January 25, 2012
I’m not sure Jrue has half the skills at and on the way to, the rim as ET does… vice versa, ET doesn’t have nearly the range on his shot that Jrue has… The funny part about those skills, leads me to believe that ET should be at the point at jrue at the SG spot, though I know that will never happen and honestly ET’s size might be a bit wasted at that position.
Supra98x - January 25, 2012
From what we’ve seen so far this season, E.T. is incredible taking it to the hoop. Jrue’s no slouch though, he’s got long arms and a nice floater, from what I remember.
Disagree about ET at the point though. He’s very creative with the ball and good at dishing on his drives, but hasn’t shown any ability to run the Team offense at this point. I’d rather ET continue to focus on improving his shot, learning to play off the ball (looks like he’s picking up a spot up 3 from the side of the court), and his defense, rather than learning on how to run an offense.
J.P.Melle - January 25, 2012
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