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The 14-6 Philadelphia 76ers will host Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic tonight, in the first of a tumultuous two week stretch where the Sixers face opponents with a combined winning percentage of .634.
Despite their 12-8 record, the Magic have been playing awful basketball as of late. They've lost three consecutive games and four of their last five. In their four losses – which included a 56 point stinker against the Celtics, a blown 27 point lead against the same Celtics and a 26 point loss to the lowly Hornets – the Magic were outscored by combined total of 377-291.
Adding injury to insult, the Magic will be without the services of starting point guard, Jameer Nelson, who will miss the game with concussion-like symptoms. Unfortunately, the benefit of playing the Magic sans Nelson isn't as big of an advantage for opponents as it's been in previous years, because his PER is under 10 this season and his true shooting percentage is .468.
The Magic will also be playing the second game of a back-to-back and Spencer Hawes will probably return to the starting lineup after missing the past seven games with injury. The stars are aligning for a Sixers win and good start to this tough stretch. Then why am I worried?
Make the jump.
Update: Spencer Hawes has been ruled OUT and Nikola Vucevic is a game-time decision.
The Sixers are a good team, and an even better team when Spencer Hawes, but they have glaring weaknesses, weaknesses that have been exposed a few times this season.
Weakness #1: Offensive Rebounding
The Sixers don't have anything that resembles interior defense. Their soft interior defense becomes even weaker with a hobbled Hawes and Tony Battie as his backup. Therefore, talented big men eat this team alive (See: Kris Humphires). It just so happens that Orlando has the best big man in the NBA, Dwight Howard.
D12 leads the league in defensive rebounding and total rebounding. His 37.5 defensive rebound percentage currently ranks as the second highest rebounding percentage of all time, behind Dennis Rodman's 37.8 in the 1994-95 season. The Sixers are the worst offensive rebounding team in the league and allowed 19 rebounds (6 offensive) to Kris Humphries last week. The Sixers number one ranked defense can force the Magic to miss shots all night, but it will be all for naught if Dwight is under the hoop to grab 500 offensive rebounds.
Weakness #2: Points In The Paint
The Sixers are 13th in the NBA in allowing points in the paint, and I'm sure that number is worse without Spencer Hawes and Nikola Vucevic. The Orlando Magic rank second in the NBA in points in the paint, at 45 per game. I don't really need to explain this one. A team who's good at scoring in the paint vs. a team who's below average at defending teams from scoring in the paint is a recipe for a lot of points in the paint for the team who is normally good at scoring points in the paint.
Weakness #3: Shot Selection
The most efficient shot in basketball is an attempt at the basket because it's the easiest to make. The least efficient shot in basketball is a long two pointer because it has almost the same degree of difficulty as a three point shot, but it's only worth two points.
Unfortunately, the Sixers are 28th in the league in shot attempts at the rim. To make matters worse, the Magic are the best team in the league at limiting their opponents attempts at the rim.
The Magic are also the third best team in the league at forcing their opponents to shoot the dreaded long two pointer. The Sixers are tied for the third most long two pointers attempted.
To recap: Magic = good at forcing long twos (inefficient) and good at limiting opponents shots at the rim (efficient). Sixers = bad at attempting shots at the basket (efficient) and good at settling for long two point attempts (inefficient).
X-Factor: Ryan Anderson
Although he's tailed off considerably and missed yesterday's game game against the Pacers with a bruised calf, Ryan Anderson has been one of the most surprisingly impressive offensive players this season. He's second on the Magic in PER, at 23.5, and makes more than three three pointers per game at a 42 percent clip.
Elton Brand will likely begin the game guarding Ryan Anderson, which is a huge mismatch (on both ends of the floor, actually). Elton is not meant to roam around the perimeter and contest Anderson's seven+ three point attempts per game. Thaddeus Young is the best option to drape Anderson with, but since Thad is part of the Night Shift, Anderson will should get his shots off on Elton early on in the first and third quarters, at least.
All this is assuming Anderson plays, of course. Fingers crossed he sits out. Although a part of me wants to beat the Magic as close to full strength as possible.
The Bench
From a pure basketball standpoint, the bench play is really the only significant advantage the Sixers hold on the Magic. The Magic bench is 24th in the league, giving up an average of 6.6 more points than they score per game, while the Sixers rank second with a +13.9 differential.
Big Baby, J.J. Redick, Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon are the Magic's first four off the bench. The Night Shift should be able to simultaneously hold these guys in check defensively while exploiting them on offense.
Conclusion
On paper the Magic are a bad match-up for the Sixers, but that's without factoring the turmoil they've been facing as a team. The ongoing Dwight Howard saga took a major turn for the worse when he ripped his teammates publicly a few days ago. The Magic seem to have quit on their superstar.
Jameer and Ryan Anderson are both ailing, but the Sixers have injuries of their own with Spencer and Vooch. Both Hawes and Anderson are game-time decisions, so depending on who plays or doesn't play could swing the game in either team's favor.
Orlando is also playing the second of a back-to-back, on the road, while the Sixers are fully rested and playing in front of what should be the best crowd of the season at the Wells Fargo Center.
My head says the Magic win this game behind a monster performance from Dwight, against possibly the softest front court in the league. My heart says chemistry, a chip on their shoulder and the home crowd fuel a Sixers victory to kick off this tough two week stretch.
We shall see! Hopefully this isn't the final time I use the phrase "Dwight Howard Comes To Philadelphia" in a headline. Maybe if the Sixers and Philly crowd woo Howard enough tonight they'll convince the free-agent-to-be to consider The City of Brotherly Love as a potential landing spot.
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0 recs | 29 comments
Starting at center Number 12 on your Philadelphia 76ers
Dwight Howard!!!
Toddzila - January 30, 2012
well...
i’m glad you slept well.
DaaaBirdsDaBirds - January 30, 2012
On the plus side
http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/id/7518789/orlando-magic-dwight-howard-ok-playing-chicago-bulls
He’s expanding his list of teams. On the minus side, all of the other teams are definitely more attractive for him than the Sixers. I still think it is extremely unlikely (1% chance?) that Howard would come to Philadelphia and that talking about it is pretty much a waste of time…but hey, I’m bored at work.
Drew1750 - January 30, 2012
Is anyone here good friends with God? We have to convince him that Dwight should come to Philly.
jefu - January 30, 2012
Who cares? We have Wight!
BrandonB - January 30, 2012
do we? or does he have partial season tickets
J.Michael Woodson - January 30, 2012
Your starting center in 2021!
ala Shaq in Boston
Could imagine how awesome the Celtics roster could have been last year if everyone was 10 years younger?
Ray Allen
Paul Peirce
Kevin Garnett
Saquille O’Neal
Jermaine O’Neal
and a 16 year old Rondo.
tst29 - January 30, 2012
RE: Long 2s
Can someone explain to me why the team takes so many long two’s while the defensive system is basically based on the idea that long 2s are bad? How can the players/staff do the thing they most want their opponent to do?
mrprice33 - January 30, 2012
The long 2 is basically a last resort shot with an expiring shot clock. It’s not like they are trying specifically to set up for a long 2.
BrandonB - January 30, 2012
I don’t think they realize it’s a bad shot.
Michael Levin - January 30, 2012
To be fair, you could make an argument that, depending on the player, an uncontested long 2 is a higher percentage shot then a contested shot that is closer to the rim. I would just prefer that if they are going to take a wide open long two, just take one step back and shoot a three. That could go for the whole league really.
BrandonB - January 30, 2012
Not ET. I’d have to guess his % on long 2’s is way better than on 3’s
TheAL76 - January 30, 2012
Then you would guess wrong ;)
32% on long 2’s. Worse than every other regular- even Iggy.
http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=PHI&type=pg&posi=%25&yr=2012&gp=0&mins=0
Look at the stats, he is about the worst at long 2’s on the team. Although still better than his 3pt%.
tk76 - January 30, 2012
I feel like I come across as anti-Turner- when that is not the case. I think he is a multi-talented player who has show signs of development. But he is a terribly inefficienct offensive player right now. His good passing does not fully make up for his terrible TS% and eFG%. Better than last year, so hopefully he learns to score efficiently. he has the skill to do so. And it is not Collins’ fault (I’d use all caps if that was not a rude thing to do.)
tk76 - January 30, 2012
The biggest improvement for Turner has been inside 10 feet. His numbers have jumped tremendously.
mrprice33 - January 30, 2012
Absolutely. Now he needs to take more of those shots- which he has started to do.
tk76 - January 30, 2012
But it seems like everything I’ve read about the defensive philosophy this year is to force teams to take long 2’s, as they are the most inefficient shot in basketball. I think the quote from Doug was something like “they’ll kill you making 3s and layups, but not long 2s.” If they’ve built a whole defensive philosophy around allowing this one type of shot (and if hoopdata has the data to back this up I can’t find it), then I don’t see how our players seemingly forget all of that when it’s their turn to shoot.
I would go crazy if I was Doug lol. It’s working to a point now, but who knows if it’s sustainable (it’s probably not).
mrprice33 - January 30, 2012
nevermind, found it. The sixers are 2nd best in the NBA in “forcing” long 2s at 24.9 per game, with opponents hitting 35.2%. Boston is LAST at 16.4 (crazy).
mrprice33 - January 30, 2012
The thing is that the Sixers are one of the few teams that actually hits long 2’s at a high percentage (except ET and Iguodala.)
tk76 - January 30, 2012
The best team last year at long 2’s was Dallas. Although they did not shoot more per game than other teams. The Sixers lead the league this year at long 2 percentage, but are also shooting too many of them. But what are you going to do when you have no post scorers. You can only generate so many drives and 3’s in a game.
tk76 - January 30, 2012
because we have a boss on our team.
jefu - January 30, 2012
In spite of the Sixers’ tendency to shoot more outside shots than they should, they are among the league leaders in field goal percentage and scoring! This is very significant, since they often manage to score like a team filled with inside players without them!
Not having Hawes or Vucevic is going to limit those inside shots and opportunities anyway, and Dwight Howard patrolling the lane is also a good deterrent to Sixers inside scoring. Don’t worry about that! Just worry about whether they are making their outside shots or not.
For the Sixers an uncontested 2 is as good as a layup for most teams, sometimes better since Jodi and Lou have been hitting an abnormally high number of threes.
RickoT - January 30, 2012
No it isn’t.
Michael Levin - January 30, 2012
Then why are the Sixers ranked 4th in field goal shooting?
The numbers say they don’t need to go inside to make a high percentage of their shots!
It seems that an uncontested 2 is better than a layup for most teams! The vast majority shoot a lower percentage than the Sixers, even the ones with a better mix of shots.
This is a major strength of the team, pass the ball to the open man for an easy shot. Doug has drummed this into them, and when they do it, it works very well. It also tends to open up the offense as defenses get frustrated when you’re successful making what they give you.
RickoT - January 30, 2012
A long two will never be as good as a layup. Not saying the Sixers aren’t hitting jump shots. Just saying that at no point will a long two ever be better than a layup.
Michael Levin - January 30, 2012
Yeah. The only thing better than a layup is a dunk lol. Hopefully they keep it up, but it feels like fool’s gold right now. Last year, with the same roster, the Sixers were 6th in long 2 attempts and shot 39%, about league average. This year, it’s 24.1 per (4th most) and 41% (5th in the league).
It’s weird, because statistically their analogs on offense are much older teams like Dallas, San Antonio, and the Lakers, except the Sixers have nearly the youngest team in the league.
mrprice33 - January 30, 2012
haha, ricko.
jefu - January 30, 2012
Sixers 7.5 favorite.
BrandonB - January 30, 2012
I say the Sixers cover. 8 points is a lot, and they have Dwight and we don’t. But they have been dogging it and moral is low and they’re on a back to back which all spells trouble for them.
Look for the Sixers to get off to a fast start and run away with it. Not that Orlando is a bad team, but Dwight is the only place where they have a real edge and that’s true whether Vucevic plays or not. The Sixers have a league leading point differential, Orlando ranks 18th. The Sixers shoot .470 and Orlando .430.
RickoT - January 30, 2012
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