The sides of this argument have become so muddled and sloshed around that I'm not exactly sure where any of you stand anymore. The discussion about starting Evan Turner over incumbent bomb-dropper Jodie Meeks has been the most talked-about subject on this blog and often the most heated (Boss excluded).
So I'm going to try and harness your discussion here, because it's one that is worth having, even though I'm not sure what we're arguing. I'd like to fully and explicitly state that I want Evan Turner to start and play 30 minutes a night. I want this because I think he has the potential to be the best, most complete player on the team with Andre Iguodala (he of the gotta be unsustainable 38.8% three-point shooting). I think the Sixers can accomplish as much as they would this year with ET getting 30 and significantly more down the road. I don't think Doug Collins "hates" him, nor do I think he's using him correctly. Collins is trying to do what's best for Evan and for the team - I don't think trading him is even getting considered, nor should it be.
That's not to say I don't value the floor-stretchiness that is M33KS, but with improved outside shooting from Dre (6.1% over career), Jrue Holiday (1.8% over career), and Louis Williams (5.2% over career), Jodie is less of a necessity than he was last season. The offense stalls too often in the half court, especially without a healthy Spencer Hawes, and then it becomes Bosstime, which either works perfectly or an asteroid hits the stadium and kills everyone inside except for Boss, who continues taking fadeaway 28-footers with 18 seconds left on the shot clock. I'd rather see Turner's playmaking improve in the half court for 30 minutes, and Jodie hitting three's and playing reasonably decent defense against the second team for 18-20.
Or they could just fight to the death. Let this be your battle royal, but be nice to each other, and no jumping off the top rope unless you're doing the Undertaker rope walk.
1 recs | 117 comments
Do you really think?
Turner is that good? Why? I haven’t seen anything from him to show that. I’d prefer to use him as a chip to get a big
Dan Pearson - February 14, 2012
#TeamM33ks or #TeamTurner where is the poll?!
xEgan - February 14, 2012
I thought it really hard but didn’t have the strength to mention it.
Michael Levin - February 14, 2012
Meeks is a bench player. I don’t undervalue what he does either as every team needs a guy who can come off the bench and knock down 3’s. And I want to resign Jodie. But Turner, with his improved play this year, has shown that he should get a shot at 30 minutes a night.
If Meeks is NOT hitting his shots, he really gives you nothing out there. I like Jodie but I feel he’s a bench guy.
HermosaPhilly - February 14, 2012
Perfectly said. Which leaves only one question, why doesn’t Doug see it this way?
Jruethedamaja - February 14, 2012
Because Doug is obsessed with 3-point shooting and “floor spacing” (which doesn’t exist because Meeks is always wide open) at the cost of defense, dribbling ability, passing ability, a midrange game, and attacking the basket.
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
yea, our defense sucks
Dan Pearson - February 15, 2012
2nd that, hate our perimeter D especially. Also hate how our best 3 point shooter always finds himself wide open.
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
Deathmatch
Ben16 - February 14, 2012
That was the reference.
Michael Levin - February 14, 2012
Good show
Ben16 - February 14, 2012
Great show
Naismithball - February 14, 2012
I’m sure I’m a main source of confusion.
I like Turner and would like to see him play more. However I understand why Dougie plays Meeks more and will defend his decisions against those who are calling for his head.
I also think people seriously underrate Meeks around here. He’s not just a good shooter. He has been one of the best shooters in the league this season. While his defense isn’t great, it’s not as bad as people make it out to be. And the team has statistically played better with Meeks on the floor than when he’s not. This is a 20-9 team and Meeks plays a part in that.
yosoysean - February 14, 2012
tk76 from prior thread provides 2 points I agree with
I think this goes to the very heart of the issue. Forget Meeks v. Turner straight up, it’s not about that because clearly ET is the better talent. I don’t think anyone, at least i hope no one is arguing that point. The fact is some line-ups just work better than others. Granted, +/- isn’t the be all end all and sometimes individual stats in a vacuum can be twisted, that said, i think this is a good stat to help frame the issue.
The OKC example is also very good and goes to the issue of looking at the best line-up vs. comparing individual players.
dp - February 14, 2012
I put up a much more detailed look at each player’s effect on team performance over at Brian’s site. Here were the conclusions based on adjusted +/-:
tk76 - February 14, 2012
To clarify, the numbers looked at whether the Sixers did better when a certain player was n the court versus being on the bench (and tried to control for pace, minutes and teammates.)
So the Sixers do NOT perform better when either ET, Meek or Lou are on the court as compared to when those guys are on the bench. Which makes it hard for any of them to clamor for more minutes regardless of their individual stats.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
I’ll defer to Collins on this one. I think the dude has deserved that much after his wizardry this season. At least, I think Collins has shown he knows what he’s doing. What makes this situation any different?
hallcr3 - February 14, 2012
See this I don’t believe in. Things like “Well they know more than us so we should just trust them.” I don’t buy it. Have an opinion either way, and trust Collins is making the right one, but I hate the quadrant of fans who say we shouldn’t question anything because they’ve been doing well or they’re smarter, etc. Otherwise all draft picks would be the right ones and every team would win a championship every year.
Michael Levin - February 14, 2012
You mean they don’t? I only follow the Sixers because they win the championship every year!! I can’t be seen following a non-championship team!! Hmmm…I should root for the Lakers…isn’t Kobe still on that team? They must win the championship every year!!!
dweebowitz - February 14, 2012
Sites like this are here to discuss these things. It is not putting a value judgement on the coach if you agree or disagree.
But it is fair to say Collins gets more credence based on his success and he also has a better sense of how the players are responding to things and what they can handle.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
It’s not that we should trust everything Collins does. Our opinions do matter and should have value as part of a reasonable discussion…all of our opinions except yours, that is.
/burn’d
jefu - February 14, 2012
I think my position has been clear: I just don’t think Turner is that good now, and I don’t think he’s going to be very good in the future. I think he’s a below-average player right now with one great skill (rebounding). If he develops to be an average player across the board (better individual and team defense, better range on his shot, better at getting to the line, improves handle and court vision, etc.) along with continuing to be a great rebounder, he’ll be a 30+ mpg guy. I don’t think Meeks is great either, but Doug has decided that he’d rather have Meeks’ shooting over Turner’s rebounding most of the time, and since it’s working, I’m going to defer to Collins. I also don’t believe that the difference between 20 mpg and 30 mpg is really going to affect Turner’s development, so I don’t feel like his development is being hampered.
duckyninja - February 14, 2012
this
100% makes sense. Guys, Turner simply is not that good
Dan Pearson - February 14, 2012
Oh, well thanks for letting me know. I’ll just be on my way then.
Michael Levin - February 14, 2012
he agrees with the guy who thought Lou should be starting over Meeks.
jefu - February 14, 2012
*starting over Holiday.
jefu - February 14, 2012
I've asked
for evidence the other way, and I just haven’t seen it. Evan Turner dominated college ball, but he seems to require the ball in his hand a lot and he’s simply not good enough to be “that guy”
Dan Pearson - February 14, 2012
so in order to be good he has to be “that guy”? You’re way off base.
jefu - February 14, 2012
I’m not really sure you know what you’re talking about…
The Mad Hopper - February 14, 2012
How many things does Meeks do better than Turner?
Jruethedamaja - February 14, 2012
2 – shoot 3’s and not turn the ball over. And that’s all that Collins wants him to do.
J.P.Melle - February 14, 2012
Hard to turn over the ball when all you do is catch and shoot yo…
bebopdeluxe - February 14, 2012
Isn’t that what the guard between Iggy and Jrue should be doing? You can’t have 3 guys all playing point.
I know you would rather turn Jrue into a scorer/shooter and have ET play PG, but there is strong data showing Jrue is the engine of this team. If anything I want Jrue to become more of this team’s PG, not less because the team succeeds when Jrue is your PG. I crunched a lot of numbers today and came out convinced that Jrue has a much bigger net impact on this team than you might think.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
My response was to the post above...
If the poster says that one thing that Meeks does betterr than Turner is not turn the ball over, that assertion should be put in context – yes?
Until I see more of JTI (which seemed to be growing together pretty nicely the first month of the season, thanks), I am not backing off of the belief that the maximum talent that this team can develop over the next couple of years is exactly that lineup. I actually think we were going to go in that direction – let JTI develop as our closers – until Collins woke up and saw us as a top-5 NBA team…which ended all of the inevitable JTI growing pains (because we can win a lot of games now), and led to a trip back to LouWillVille to get the Boss.
And that sucks, IMO.
I am happy to see that Jrue has great numbers at PG…it still does not change my belief that our best application of resources in the guts of the game – on BOTH sides of he ball – is JTI. Turner is a better rebounder, better and more versatile defender and WAY better ballhandler than Meeks, and I believe that even if Turner can’t achieve Lou’s level of Bossness, I think that Jrue can…and you also get ET’s defense and rebounding over Lou as well.. And what happens – after we have made this committment to Lou in terms of late-game player development (or lack thereof) – if Lou opts out this summer? Are you going to give him Thad money or are you going to let him walk and we start the whole JTI process again NEXT season (after we’ve blown anoher year of development and kicked he kid’s confidence to the curb while we’re at it)?
I just don’t undersand why people are so freaking stubborn about Jrue having to be the PG every single minute heis out on the floor. He has the potential to be our closer. He had a nice stroke from 3 – and he likes take it. Having Turner out there with him in the guts of the game as another ballhandler gives our offense more options, and he is a better and more veratile defender – and one of our best rebounders, to boot.
Short of getting Howard or trading Iguodala for a closer, the only way that I see this team beating the elite teams in the NBA is going with as much JTI as possible – guys like Meeks or Lou (if he’s even here after this season) aren’t going to get it done, IMO…and instead of viewing Turner sharing the ball- handling duties with Jrue as a glass-half-empty situation, I choose to look at the glass-half-full possibilities…which are WAY better than what Jodie Meeks brings to the table.
(rant over)
bebopdeluxe - February 14, 2012
Jrue-Iggy-Meeks: +127 in 496 minutes. This is the best +/- 3-man group on the team this year.
Jrue-Iggy-Turner: Not among the best 50 3-man combinations (meaning +/- is <20) But maybe they just have not played together enough to find success.
But you are saying they should break up the most successful 3-man combo on the team this year because Turner is more talented than Meeks. But the goal is not to have the most talented individuals on the floor, it’s to have the best team.
You are going to have a hard time convincing any coach to break up the group of players that together have the most success of any combination on the team… and that is exactly what you are calling for when you say Meeks should not be playing.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
BTW, here is my link for the Sixers best 3-man combos:
http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=3&season=22011&split=9&team=76ers&pager.offset=0
Note that Meeks is in each of the top 3 units. To his credit, ET is in the 4th most successful group, although ET makes only 3 of the top 20 groupings. It is really Jrue who’s name pops up most often.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
3-man combos aren’t real, that is made-up stuff. You never play with 3 men on the floor so it’s an irrelevant stat.
The best 5-man combo includes Turner and not Meeks. 3 of our top 4 combos include Turner and not Meeks. The fourth best combo includes Jrue, Turner, and Iggy together.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=5&season=22011&split=9&team=76ers
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
From the other article
The Sxiers have 18 5-man units that have played 20+ minutes. Of these 18 only 11 are highly successful (adjusted +/- of +10) while the other 8 range from +2 to -25. Here is a breakdown of how many times individual Sixers appear in one of their 11 successful 5-man units:
9X: Jrue and Thad
7X: Iguodala and Lou
6X: Turner
5X: Brand
4X: Meeks
3X: Vuce
2X: Hawes and Allan
So sure, ET is a big part of some of this team’s best line-ups. Not as much as Jrue or Young, but definitively a big part.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
That’s good stuff, thank you sir.
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
But look at those top10 line-ups with ET:
Lou-Jrue-ET
Lou-Iggy-ET
Jrue-ET-Iggy
Lou-Jrue-ET
Lou-Meeks-ET
So ET makes 5 of the top 10… but only once is that with JTI and only twice next to Iggy. That may be because Collins never goes with that grouping- or it could be that ET finds more success in line-ups that are more stacked with shooters. It is hard to know.
BTW, Meeks is also in 5 of the top 10 performing line-ups.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
if I am not mistaken...
Over at 82games, the JTITB fivesome (Jrue-ET-Iggy-Thad-Brand) is the number 3 fivesome…and close to #1 in its winning percentage…this is meaningful because this was the primary JTI lineup that was closing games those first 3-4 weeks. I know that one of the two that is above themis the starting lineup…but the point is the JTI lineup was one of he best – if not THE best – lineup that we were running out there.
So why the f did that just get toosed in the garbage can for a return to LouWillVille – huh? What – EXACTLY – did ET do to get thrown off of that bus, huh?
I think that, after the Denver loss (which was MUCH more a case of the defense not stopping Miller than he offense not being able to score), Collins said to himself that developing JTI was nice, but the Sixers were near the top of he conference, and ather than go through the additional growing pains that JTI would have to go through to get where they could go, he didn’t want to lost anymore games, so he brought the Boss back to close the show…which might be swell, but it also throws both Turner’s and JTI’s continued development into the trash can…which is just swell.
bebopdeluxe - February 14, 2012
Question
Do any of these lineup analyses account for the level of competition. It seems obvious that the Night Shift will kill the opposing teams bench, as they are the best bench in the league.
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
Adjusted +/- accounts somewhat for your teammates, but I do not think it accounts for competition. Raw plus-minus is a simple counting stat. It does not even account for minutes played. So a +10 unit might be more effective than a +15 unit if the +10 unit played less minutes overall.
tk76 - February 15, 2012
Thanks.
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
I’m so freakin stubborn about Jrue having to be the PG because he’s our best PG.
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
How many things does Turner do better than Meeks? Defend. Rebound. Score. Handle. Distribute. I really don’t care what Doug wants him to do. This whole discussion is about whether Doug is right or wrong to play Meeks over Turner. And in my opinion, he is wrong. Evan is by far the better basketball player.
Jruethedamaja - February 14, 2012
Everyone agrees ET is a better overall basketball player than Meeks. The debate is whether the Sixers as a team are better with Meeks in his role versus dramatically cutting Meek’s minutes in favor of more ET.
You can have a player who has more talent but does not fill a need as well as a specialist. This is not uncommon on many NBA rosters.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
huh?
jefu - February 14, 2012
Turner has one of the best handles on the team. He’s not exactly turning the ball over at an alarming rate. His defense is also one of the best on the team. Also, I’m not sure why you think having minutes go from 20 to 30 won’t make much of a difference in his development. That’s nonsense. You’re talking about the difference between a 8-9th guy in the rotation to solid starter’s minutes.
jefu - February 14, 2012
Yes
You’ve stated your opinion multiple times. It’s usually been unfounded. It still is.
The Mad Hopper - February 14, 2012
I honestly don’t think Turner’s confidence is shot since I’ve seen pictures of his girlfriend and she has rocking tits.
xEgan - February 14, 2012
Grumble grumble grumble
Evan Turner… BUST… More Minutes… Meeks ….Doug Collins…. Doug-House™… Potential… Playoffs…
soman319 - February 14, 2012
Rec for respecting trademark. Although I’m sure there will be tons of contraband “Doug-House” gear flooding in from China. It might turn into the next #FreeSpeezy.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
Oh My God!!! That's...That's Evan Turner's Music!!!!!!
dweebowitz - February 14, 2012
FTAs vs TOs
The ‘Meeks vs Turner’ debate is a microcosm of how Doug Collins wants this team to operate. Collins hates turnovers. Just HATES em. As a result, the Sixers are turning the ball over at a historically low rate. They’re doing this by shooting jumpers instead of attacking the rim. The Sixers attempt the 3rd fewest shots in the league at the rim (0-3 feet) and the most shots from 10-23 feet (they attempt average amounts from 3-9 feet and from 3pt range). That’s why the Sixers are bad at getting to the line (3rd fewest FTAs). Collins is willing to sacrifice all the good things that come from attacking the rim (FTAs, getting opposing big men in foul trouble, getting higher percentage shots, etc) in order to avoid turnovers. So far, it’s working. Whether it continues to work is another story. But his preference on this particular issue is the reason that Meeks is getting more minutes than Turner.
The writers on LB obviously do not agree with Collins on this strategy. They want the Sixers’ perimeter players to attack the basket. I don’t blame them. Long 2s are the worst shot in basketball. But they’re still better than turnovers. And attacking the basket only leaves 2 guys back for transition defense, rather than 3. So, personally, I’m willing to ride out this conservative style of offense for the time being. The Sixers are like this year’s San Francisco 49ers. Win the turnover battle every game, and who knows, you could go farther than you otherwise would given your talent level.
tyus - February 14, 2012
I don’t know if that is Collins style or just his conclusion based on the current Sxiers roster. When you lack post scoring, interior defense, O-boards and stars your best chance at winning to to go with their team based low TO approach- and it is clearly working. It really helps mask some of their warts as a team.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
Rec’d for unmatched accuracy.
Michael Levin - February 14, 2012
agreed, and if they kept this style of play and could just get a big who was strong and athletic enough to finish at the rim I think he could make up for the lack of risky attempts they’re getting at the rim. At least, if a big turned the ball over you would still have your perimeter defenders to get back on defense in time (in most cases).
Perhaps this phantom big man is exactly what the doctor ordered if this team wants to become a true contender?
jefu - February 14, 2012
Very interesting way to look at it. If this is his reasoning…and one of the things I’ve noticed regarding Turner lately is his tendency to not attack the basket and shoot the jumper instead (which would back your reasoning)…then I guess it kinda makes sense. But at the same time, I’d much prefer Turner driving than shooting as well as Turner’s minutes dwarfing those of Lou and Meeks.
LeJclair1 - February 14, 2012
So
it’s better to ride a strategy that is obviously flawed and will likely fail the team at some point during the playoffs than work on and cut down the TO’s in attempting to score closer to the rim? You know players CAN improve upon their flaws. The goal is to win a championship by improving as many facets of the game as you can. By simply taking the path of least resistance will only guarantee mediocrity.
RedHopeful - February 15, 2012
Obviously flawed? We’re 20 and 9 and have been beating good teams. The unfortunate reality is that this team as currently constructed is most likely going to fail at some point in the playoffs, regardless of if Turner gets 20 or 30 minutes per game. I think our best bet to win a couple rounds will be to secure home court for a round or two. Don’t get me wrong, when Turner is playing well I wish Collins would keep him in, but at the very least I get what he’s thinking.
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
In the first 17 games of the season, Turner AVERAGED 26.5 minutes a game…a number he has hit exactly ONCE in the last 12.
Seems like the Denver game was the tipping point…ET played the entire 4th quarter and OT, while Lou played only 19 minutes – his lowest total of the season. Shortly thereafter, JTI closing games is no more, Lou reclaims his Boss-ness (LOL in the post above, Michael), and Turner becomes the backup SF with Lou and Meeks.
Sweet.
…and a sweet way to pizz away the progress that Turner and his confidence had made during the first month of the season. Nice job, Dougie.
I think Turner needs to put some kneepads on, go into Collins’ office, and do a “Meeks”.
bebopdeluxe - February 14, 2012
Recent Stretch
Turner has really only lost his minutes recently. Since the Atlanta game (which he actually played very well in), ET has only played more than 20 minutes in the blowout vs. Cleveland and the Lakers game ( and only because Jodie picked up 2 fouls in all of 30 seconds). It doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense to me. Turner has proven during his time here that he is better once he gets into a rhythm and get comfortable. Its got to be hard to find any rhythm in a 5 minute or less 2nd half stint. I blame the Clipper loss solely on Doug for that reason. Turner actually came into that game very aggressive and efficient, scoring 7 point on 3-4 shooting, even knocking down a 3 from the corning. He also provided good defense on the Mo Williams/CP3 tandem which dominated us the minute he went back to the bench. He came out with a 12 point lead and that lead had all but evaporated by halftime. It’s more of a question of why guys like Meeks and Lou and simply allowed to play through the mistakes they make ( Jodie in particular was allowed to play through his awful 5 game stretch to start the season), and Turner is yanked at the first sign of trouble
Philly23 - February 14, 2012
EXACTLY
How DARE Turner allow himself to get beat to a loose ball by Reggie Evans!
The Lou/Meeks backcourt was getting ROASTED by the Clips in the 3rd…Turner gets TWO minutes, doesn’t get that loose ball, and “c ya” Evan.
Even last night…that 3rd quarter was a freaking comedy of errors…remember Collins benching guys when they wered screwing up out there?
Wait…oh…you didn’t see that?
Funny…neither did I.
bebopdeluxe - February 14, 2012
In a quarter in which the Clippers scored 19 points?
yosoysean - February 15, 2012
16-2 run from midway through the 3rd to early 4th with Lou/Meeks...
A 7-point Sixers lead went “poof”.
bebopdeluxe - February 15, 2012
I was there man, it was awful. I couldn’t believe he kept them in. This to me is the problem. It shouldn’t matter if you’re Lou, Meeks, or Turner, if you’re not playing well you should come out. If you are, you should stay in. I had no problem with Turner getting yanked for Iggy’s defense on Maggette in the Bobcats game after Turner made a couple bad plays. And I have no problem with Lou playing all Bossy if he’s on. The the same rules should apply to everyone – play well, you play.
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
I want to see more Turner, period.
But that’s not to say that I don’t understand why Collins doesn’t play him more and opts to start the safer, low-upside Jodie Meeks. It’s hard for me to throw my hands up in the air and have a fit over it when we’re 20-9. Meeks fits our somewhat conventional system and stretches the floor hitting the three at 43% which is great. He also plays pretty decent defense, runs the floor well, and doesn’t play beyond his capabilities ( Dougie loves that).
But that doesn’t mean I agree with him either. I truly believe Turner has the most upside on the team, including Jrue. Turner has a complete game. He can create his own shot in the half court, either off the dribble or via the post and he can also create for others. He can play really good man defense and is a fantastic rebounder for his size. I really think his game can be similar to Brandon Roy’s and he can put up similar numbers in the future whenever he has a bigger role on this team. Something like 20 ppg, 5 rpg, and 5 apg are within the realms of possibility in my opinion. YEA I THINK HE CAN SCORE 20 PPG!!
So yea, it’s frustrating to me, but I get it ( at least I think I do?). Comes down to two different ways of looking at things. Go for the lower-upside win-now approach or go for the higher-upside let’s worry more about the future approach. Since we’re 20-9 and playing good basketball I just don’t think developing Turner as much as possible is one of their bigger priorities. Hopefully that changes in the near future.
jrb5094 - February 14, 2012
I was a member of the "ET should play more" party as well
But in the last 3-4 games honestly he hasn’t showed he deserves it.
The poor defense and sissy fouls on Maggette in the 4th were embarassing, he was pulled out at the right time and I couldn’t complain.
The only thing he’s doing well right now is rebounding, duckninja is right. He has to show more when he’s on the floor
Ricky - Sixers4guidos - February 14, 2012
its tough to really show alot when your not getting consistent minutes. Its really difficult to have much going offensively without a rhythm, and playing the limited minutes he’s been playing makes it impossible to find that rhythm. He was playing well when given his 25+ minutes. Then all of a sudden the minutes went down. Its not surprising to see his play suffer from the inconsistencies of his minutes.
Philly23 - February 14, 2012
His drop in production occurred as a result of dropping his minutes. Give Jrue or Iggy 15 minutes and you’ll see them produce garbage too.
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
i'd rather him start at point guard
move jrue to the 2
juggadore - February 14, 2012
i like jrue off ball too
kid can be a deadly slasher.
pqrk - February 14, 2012
plus it would give him a reason to attack the basket…
juggadore - February 14, 2012
but meeks is faster than any sixer ive seen in years...
ever see the guy turn on the jets? it’s like woahh where did that come from???
juggadore - February 14, 2012
he turns on the jets but he misses his fair share of layups, from what i've seen
Gosu44 - February 15, 2012
I actually think this is a decent plan. Jrue is a better catch and shoot player anyway.
Dan Pearson - February 14, 2012
Agree 100%
…and it not just because Jrue has the 3-point stroke and the potential (and cojones) to be our closer…it is also because there are other aspects of the game to be considered in any Turner vs Meeks discussion…
Like DEFENSE
And REBOUNDING
You know, areas where Turner’s skills dwarf Meeks.
The only problem with this out-of-consensus thinking is it would send many members of the Sixers blogosphere into various stages of apoplexy.
bebopdeluxe - February 14, 2012
apopowhatxy bebopdeluxy?
juggadore - February 14, 2012
+1
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
If you are playing SG between Jrue and Iggy then you are guarding the opponents worst wing player. You also get plenty of rebounding from Jrue and Iggy. So is REBOUNDING and DEFENSE (your caps) really so crucial in that setting as opposed to having a guy who can drain an open 3 and be able to guard the opponents wost wing defender (like Meeks has shown he is capable of.)
ET is great as a replacement in the rotation for Jrue, Iggy and Lou. There should be minutes for him in that role. But he is not ideally suited as the guy who plays the bulk of the team’s minutes alongside Jrue and Iggy. It is a good idea if you are protecting a lead or need 3 great wing defenders (often at the end of games.) But overall it is an issue of fit and complementary skills as opposed to overall talent.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
Jrue can shoot threes well. The best shooting guards in the NBA (Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade) don’t shoot threes well. And Turner would improve his three-point shooting if given the chance. It takes a while to get comfortable. Meeks was shooting about 20% from three-land the first couple weeks.
Remember Turner finished 31% from threes last year, and he hit big ones in the playoffs. He’s already picked it up this year after a terrible start.
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
1. A good 3-point shooter had a couple of bad games to start the season.
2. That good 3-point shooter eventually started hitting shots at a high rate.
3. Therefore anybody who takes a lot of shots can be a good 3-point shooter.
And no, I am not saying that 3-point shooting is the only measurement that should be considered in a SG. What I do argue is that having a great 3-point shooter is a perfect fit in-between two strong ball-handlers.
yosoysean - February 15, 2012
Does this apply to all areas of basketball? Like, after I become a great 3-point shooter, can I become a great dunker by trying over and over again?
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
Go to 82games and look at JTITB's numbers...
They don’t lie. And virtually all of them, I would think, were at the end of games.
bebopdeluxe - February 14, 2012
You can’t really rely on 82games right now because they have not updated their data in several weeks. Their numbers only reflect the first 20 games of the year. So the numbers are interesting but a bit out of date as compared to other sources.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
personally
i feel like part of the gameplan is for the bench to be as strong as it is. turner can create for others, and works with the 2nd unit well in that way. with that being said i have to agree that dc is all about keeping the t.o.’s down (wow nice post tyus), it seems to be his main point outside of defense.
i think turner can blossom ala james harden with 6th man minutes if given the right opportunity, but harden also has a much greener light to do what he wants when he is on the floor. frankly i’d play him more minutes, but i would mix things up instead of a straight switch of jodie to the 2nd unit and turner to the first. who passes to jodie on the night shift? its sure as hell not going to be BOSS, and that would be his main backcourt running mate. the lineup of turner running point/point forward and jrue being the offball guard is a real entertaining one to watch, i’d like to see that happen more often.
i also believe that if turner develops into a guy who can consistently hit a corner 3 that he would fill a huge need in the offense and he would see the floor more often.
final unturner related notes: i feel a lot more comfortable with iggy taking 3s this season, but mostly because he’s doing well in catch and shoot situations. for someone who digs efficient shots like dc, i dont see why there aren’t more catch and shoot 3 opportunities being developed.
pqrk - February 14, 2012
Evan should be playing ahead of Meeks. But he’s not. And it doesn’t look like that’s going to change any time soon. So trade him for Eric Gordon. If Hawes is healthy, that’s a team that can go to the conference finals.
Jruethedamaja - February 14, 2012
Ball handling
I think that Doug sees the Sixers as having 3 good ball handlers: Iggy, Jrue, and ET. I think he’s bringing ET off the bench so that he always has at least one of them on the court, and doesn’t want to have all 3 of them on the court very much, with only one ball to handle.
Dan Spear - February 14, 2012
Don’t forget Lou- who averages per 36 min 52. assists to only 1.2 TO. That is about as good as anyone in the NBA.
tk76 - February 14, 2012
Sorry, 1.4 TO.
BTW, just checked the numbers and Lou is the only player in the NBA who averages per 36min 5+ assists and <1.5 TO’s (in 15+ min/game.) Here is a list of guys who are close (Iggy makes the list.)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_minute&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=ast_per_mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=4&c2stat=tov_per_mp&c2comp=lt&c2val=2&c3stat=mp_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=15&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws#stats::none
tk76 - February 14, 2012
This would be fine, except that ET is barely even coming off the bench anymore. He mostly stays on it.
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
Ultimately, it’s as simple as this. League-wide, Turner was being recognized this year as showing nice improvement over last year. Then, the Orlando towel incident occurred, and his minutes got cut. With reduced minutes came reduced production.
So then you get the Meeks-lovers and Turner-bashers to come out here and say “well look he’s not producing so he deserves less minutes.” BS. His minutes got cut FIRST. That’s what is so ridiculous about this whole thing. You’re using the result to justify the cause. It’s backwards. He was playing well with minutes, then his minutes got cut and his production faltered, and you say “he isn’t producing anymore, bench him.” That’s called a circular argument folks.
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
QFT
bebopdeluxe - February 14, 2012
Actually
His minutes didn’t get cut after the Orlando game, they got cut before that. After the Nets loss. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/turneev01/gamelog/2012/
depressedfan - February 14, 2012
Correct.
splinter27 - February 14, 2012
We have Turner bashers and Meeks lovers?
yosoysean - February 15, 2012
Lin had 5 turnovers in the first half tonight
Yet he wasn’t nailed to the bench by his coach. They had faith in him and consequently, Lin went on to lessen his turnovers the 2nd half, play MUCH better, and sink the game winning shot. You think that guy is being given the proper opportunity to grow leaps and bounds as a player? You bet. That isn’t happening under Collins as much as naysayers would like to believe.
Gosu44 - February 15, 2012
Yeah they just happened to be good enough to beat a 9-20 team, but only because their coach has faith in his pg. Not because he has no other options at that position.
jefu - February 15, 2012 via mobile
If your point is that Collins would not tolerate a guy having 8 turnovers than I agree.
But if you are saying young players are not allowed to develop on the Sixers than I think you are on very thin ice based on how many of these Sixers are 25 and under and have flourished under Collins. But if your rooting interest is ET as opposed to the seven other Sixers 25 and under getting regular minutes and developing than maybe you are right.
tk76 - February 15, 2012
I clearly am a fan of long run on sentences with minimal punctuation.
tk76 - February 15, 2012
who isnt i mean honestly its just a more organic way to write dont you think i do
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
the latter interest
Gosu44 - February 15, 2012
Asking Turner or Meeks is the wrong question.
I’m fine with Meeks starting; if he’s on he can really jumpstart our offense. It’s the drop in Turner’s minutes, especially important minutes lately that I have a problem with. It seems to me that it’s been Lou Will’s promotion from Boss to Closer that has eaten up Turner’s minutes. Early in the season, if a guy was playing well, he played, and if the game was close he played in crunch time. There’s really only one spot open in crunch time and since that Lakers game it’s gone to Lou, regardless of who’s played well throughout the game. I’d prefer, and I think the team would be better off (though at 20 – 9, I know that’s a tough argument to make) if we went back to the ‘you play well, you play’ rule.
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
Still trying to figure out what happened to JTI at crunch-time...
Many of us wondered if it would work…could Turner and Iggy be out there at the same time…the results from the first 15-18 games seem to be an emphatic “yes”…but we are now back in LouWillVille…and I would love to know why JTI was so easily kicked to the curb.
Also…while I appreciate the Sixers-as-49ers analogy as far as having success by valuing the ball, I watch Lin get to play through the inevitable growing pains and then become LARGE at crunchtime and think about how Collins yanks Turner (or lights him up in front of the camera and home crowd) when he makes a mistake. There has to be something else going on here that we don’t know about…his comments to Cooney yesterday when he was asked about Turner’s declining minutes sure read like a tap-dance (coming from a guy who is in Springfield because of his ability to articulate crisply and clearly what is going on out on a basketball floor).
I am just praying that there is a method to his madness, and that Turner gets another shot to reform JTI – as opposed to being the waterboy for Lou and Meeks (which is his current role).
bebopdeluxe - February 15, 2012
The Knicks? Sorry man, can’t follow you there. Totally different offense. D’antoni offense has never been about protecting the ball, and he doesn’t really have any other options to go with at PG, plus Lin has them playing with passion on both sides of the ball, which they totally lacked for the 1st 3rd of the season. Collins has designed our offense largely around not turning the ball over, so in close games (which we’ve had more of lately), he’s gonna go low turnover over better all-around player, which means Meeks and Lou. I’m not saying I agree entirely, I think whoever is playing well should keep playing, but I don’t think Collins has some sort of grudge against Turner. I think there is definitely a method to his 20 & 9 ‘madness’.
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
I point out the Lin example only to say that there is a downside that goes with the upside of limiting turnovers over all else. I am a portfolio manager, and I can do a REALLY good job of avoiding losing money (if that is the NUMBER 1 priority over all else)…it would probably mean little or no stock exposure – which means that you have eliminated the potential gains that cam come with owning stocks (or other risk-oriented investments) in my portfolio. In some markets, a strategy of avoiding risk above all else is the way to go…however, in some markets, avoiding risk above all else will put you in the 4th quartile and get you fired.
By not continuing to play JTI (and going into Boss mode), you may get fewer turnovers and have more predictable execution, but you also limit the upside development of key players like Turner and Jrue-as-closer (two guys that you KNOW are going to be here next year). By not taking the ball to the rack more aggressively (and avoiding the potential of more turnovers), you do not get into the penalty as quickly (perhaps not a positive, given how this team shoots FT, but I digress), you do not get other teams’ key players in foul trouble and reduce their minutes on the floor (and get less impactful poeople on the floor in their place, blah, blah, blah…).
Lastly, this low-turnovers-over-all stuff is a great way for teams with comparatively more limited talent to play above their heads and win more games, but down the road…when you meat MORE talented teams…teams that also won’t kill themselves with turnovers…then it will come down to who can get their offense in the guts of the game, and who can force you defensively to take low-percentage shots. After watching the Sixers against teams like the Spurs and Heat, how will an offense of not getting to the line and relying primarily on 10-to-23-foot shots beat teams like that?
As some people say on this forum (I am relatively new here), “You live by the Boss…you die by the Boss…” For me, I would MUCH rather see if JTI (with Jrue as the assassin/closer and Turner bringing his more all around game and his defense/rebounding) can take that next step against really good teams. It sure was working at the beginning of the year…but it seems like, after we lost the Denver game, the JTI-as-closer plan went out the window in favor of the world of Boss.
I wonder if things would have been any different if we would have won that Denver game?
bebopdeluxe - February 15, 2012
Some more raw +/- numbers to chew on for brunch:
ET is +92 in in 370 minutes next to Jrue.
ET is only +3 in his other 310 minutes on the floor.
(Jrue is still +169 in the 650 minutes he is not paired with ET.)
Jrue has a higher +/- with Lou, Meeks and Iguodala than he does with Turner.
Likewise, Iggy has a better +/- with Jrue, Meeks and Williams than he is with Turner.
Lou has a higher +/- with Jrue than Turner, but is better with Turner than with Iguodala or Meeks.
And Meeks is better with Iggy and Jrue than he is with ET. But that is still better than Meeks is to Lou.
So basically:
1. Everybody does better playing with Jrue.
2. Jrue, Meeks and Iggy all play better with each other than they do with ET.
3. Lou does not pass, so Meeks struggles paired with Lou as compared to others.
tk76 - February 15, 2012
So...if Lou does not pass...
…then how the @#$% is Turner gonna get his game back together if the majority of his minutes are now with Meeks (who is primarily a catch-and-shoot player), and Lou (who does not pass)?
Also, Jrue’s +/- numbers with other players has to have a TON of caveats attached to them…of COURSE he is going to have higher +/- numbers with Meeks and Iggy – how many 3rd quarter blowout minutes has Jrue played with Turner? Huh? Of course, Meeks will have better numbers with Iggy and Jrue (for the EXACT same reason)…how many of Meeks’ minutes with ET are during 4th quarter blowouts?
I think you have DEFINITELY reached the point of diminishing-returns with some of the analysis you are throwing out there, bro.
bebopdeluxe - February 15, 2012
Lou gets 3.7 assists per game, which ain’t bad for a scorer off the bench. If Turner plays with Meeks and Lou, he is the primary ball-handler. He’s passing to them.
Also, are you arguing that because Jrue, Meeks, and Iggy are blowing teams out in the 3rd quarter they should play together less?
J.P.Melle - February 15, 2012
Yeah, Meeks and Lou are both shooters, so that should work well for ET. I think Iggy and ET would be the pairing that really stuggles.
tk76 - February 15, 2012
My point about the numbers when Jrue, Meeks and Iggy play together was simply an observation that you need to put these data sets into CONTEXT – that’s all. My personal opinion is that Turner should start…but that was not the point…only that Turner does not have the opportunity to compile the kind of numbers that Meeks does with Jrue and Iggy because he does not start, and it is entirely possible that if you switched the two players, you might see the same relationships…that’s all.
To be fair, I think that as far as passing the ball – in general – this has been Lou’s best year…but my guess that the majority of those 3.7 assists don’t come when he’s out there with Meeks and ET (again – stats like that need to be put into context). It is my opinion that having the bulk of Turner’s minutes as Lou and Meeks’ facilitator is a GROSS waste of his skills, development and potential long-term impact to this team. For the first 15-18 games of this season, we saw a LOT of JTI closing games…and a lot of winning. IMO, the only way that we will beat good teams deep into the playoffs – as the team is currently constructed – is to get our most talented players out there in crunchtime. You may think that having Lou out there as Boss is the way we are going to beat the Bulls, Heat, Spurs or Thunder in a playoff series.
I think that when you look at it that way – particularly when you look at BOTH sides of the ball (including stopping the other team and rebounding the basketball) – that I think that JTI has a better chance of doing that than Boss. That’s all.
bebopdeluxe - February 15, 2012
FYI: Jrue ranks #3 in the NBA in +/-, a few points behind Deng and Lebron.
Iguodala is #9 and Thad is #11.
For guys <800 minutes:
Thad #1
GWallace #2
CP3 #2
Korver #4
and the surprisingly Boozer #5 (probably helps playing next to Rose, Deng and Korver.)
tk76 - February 15, 2012
anyone who takes a wrench to something that isn’t broke…will get blamed when it is broke. the argument for a lineup adjustment doesnt even make sense until the team is anything other than 10+ games over .500
J.Michael Woodson - February 15, 2012
Then why was JTI shelved three weeks ago?
bebopdeluxe - February 15, 2012
Here’s the thing- Doug has the team winning this way. He is willing to sacrifice offense for the sake of defense and ball security.
Evan is behind Andre and that hurts him most.
Doug won’t change- he likes his offense the way it is, with players passing to the open man. Evan is a much more capable player- he can create his own shot, something most Sixers cannot. He also gets lots of boards and can take a foul and make a shot.
I suppose that Evan will have to out do Jodi on the things he does well, meaning more careful with the ball, better floor spacing and the like. Teams play off of Jodi on offense, which is why the team gets stagnant when he’s out there. Evan could make almost as much of a difference as Lou Williams does. He’s a scorer. In other words if Evan was a careful and sound as Jodi, he’d be playing. It’s a no brainer. But Doug won’t sacrifice defense or ball security.
RickoT - February 15, 2012
I just feel M33KS is a specialty player. And should be coming off the bench
He’s like a eddie house, warrren dragic type player. ET has the skills to be a star. He can dribble shoot the mid range and occasional 3. And he can get inside at ease. All he needs is minutes, trust and more confidence.
TitansJonne - February 15, 2012
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