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The 2012 Philadelphia 76ers do so many things well, it feels almost unfair to knock them for what they don't do well. Rebounding is an issue, interior depth is one as well, but the Granddaddy of them all is foul shooting. And until I took a look at the numbers, I didn't realize just how terrible things are in that department.
As far back as Basketball Reference can remember (1946), there have been only two teams with a winning percentage over .500 to average 20 or less free throw attempts per game and they've both been in the last decade. The San Antonio Spurs of 2008-09, who finished dead last in the league with 20.01 attempts on average, and the 2005-06 Phoenix Suns, led by Mike D'Antoni the year Amar'e Stoudemire missed the season, who also finished at the bottom of the NBA, with an average of just 17.99 free throws per game. Both teams, strangely enough, ended the season with a 54-28 record, a .659 winning percentage.
The Sixers this season have attempted 474 foul shots in 25 games for an average of 18.96 per outing. That only puts them 26th in the league. All of the other teams are under .500 except the Houston Rockets, who boast an even lower 18.64 FTs per game. The Rockets are 14-11, good for a .560 winning percentage thus far. What the Sixers are doing - shooting an abysmally low amount of foul shots, yet winning almost three-quarters of their games (.720) - is unprecedented in basketball history. Yes, they're a terrific defensive team, and yes, they're taking care of the basketball at an equally-historic rate, but if they don't get to the line more often, they will not get far into the postseason. In the more immediate sense, those numbers indicate that the rate at which the Sixers are winning is unsustainable.
While the Spurs lost in the first round to the Mavericks in the '09 playoffs, the Suns' unique offense under D'Antoni actually made it to the Western Conference Finals, where they also lost to the Dallas Mavericks (in a great series). The Sixers are equally unique of a team, but without the shooters the Suns have, it's extremely worrisome to think of what happens when shots stop falling for a few games. Getting to the foul line for free points (something only Louis Williams does reasonably well), is crucial to a team's long-term success because they will eventually go cold.
We'll see if the Sixers can find themselves at the stripe more as the season goes on or if they can keep defying the tremendous odds against them that this will not keep working.
0 recs | 55 comments
great (and scaring) analysis, thanks
You only needed to add a video of Iguodala’s airball, I tried to find it but haven’t been able so far.
Unfortunately I don’t see a way out, and working on that can change just little, it’s mainly mental, you have many players that in practice shoot a certain % and in games their pctg drop dramatically (typically, poor FT shooters…), I’d bet my arse that guys like Iguodala or Turner shoot them well in pratice.
The fact that we are still winning games perhaps does NOT help us, it’s like they are thinking FTs are not that important
Ricky - Sixers4guidos - February 7, 2012
What do you think are the chances of Iguodala going 6-6 at the foul line at least once this season?
My guess would be not likely.
jefu - February 7, 2012
I’d be happy with 2/2 in the final minutes of a close game. But I think that would be even less likely
Ricky - Sixers4guidos - February 7, 2012
disagree about the less likely thing. that would imply that he isn’t “clutch”, and the whole concept of clutchness is nonsense.
jefu - February 7, 2012
does anyone see video of AI9s no look shot
the gf was telling e about it
sorry for the typos half y keys are broken right now
ColeStevens - February 7, 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bThfZeulT08
grego314 - February 8, 2012
No, not quite a "historically big issue"...
Last year, the Mavs ranked 27th in free throws attempted according to basketball-reference.com. I think the end of their season had a favorable result. The Heat ranked 3rd and the Sixers ranked 26th (almost tied with the Mavs).
The difference between the Sixers and the Mavs: We can’t make them. This year, Sixers rank 27th in the NBA in FT % which is abysmal. Last year we ranked 10th.
2012 Culprits: Iguodala, Thad, Turner, Brand (in order of concern based on who gets to the line most frequently)
I’m not completely discounting Levin’s point. This is definitely a weapon you want to have in the playoffs. But often what happens in the regular season is you get into situations where you are up 6 points with 30 seconds left and the ball, and the other team plays the “who will miss free throws” game, which artificially extends the game and pads the FTA stats.
This year, with the way the Sixers have bulldozed fraud teams in the early part of the schedule, most teams didn’t even try that with the Sixers. The +10 differential definitely plays a part in that.
Going forward after this week, the Sixers have 24 games on the road out of 39 total remaining. Philly ranks 4th in 3PT FG%, but we can’t continue to win games this way. I’m betting on the Sixers getting to the line more frequently on the road when the wins get tougher and we have fewer blowouts.
If the blowouts continue at this pace…well, then I suppose I should put down some money on the Liberty Ballers to win the NBA Finals (currently 60-1) !
PhillyWarrior - February 7, 2012
I’m pretty sure Mike went into depth about how and why this is a historically big issue. Did you bother to read it?
jefu - February 7, 2012
I read the entire thing, and posted a counter argument about why I think the FTA rate will increase, and why FT% is more important than FTA (for this team). Did you bother to read it?
PhillyWarrior - February 7, 2012
But you see, your counter argument is completely irrelevant to the fact that the current free throw rate is in fact a historically big issue. You can’t just say it’s not (when it in fact is) and then counter this by “arguing” how it won’t be. You’re missing the point here.
jefu - February 7, 2012
What are you talking about? PhillyWarrior provided an excellent reason why our rate of getting to the line is so poor, because we dont have the free-throw-palooza associated with lots of close games.
Nikk.m - February 8, 2012
Looks like you failed to comprehend what i said. Dont worry about it. Just take a deep breath and try again.
jefu - February 8, 2012 via mobile
He didn’t refute the facts, simply provided an explanation why they are such. Are you really so dense?
Nikk.m - February 8, 2012
No, actually, you are. I was refuted his title…where he said it wasnt historic. I wasnt refuting his argument. Right now they are getting to the free throw line at a historically low rate. This is a fact. You cant say theyre not (right now) when they are.
Comprende?
jefu - February 8, 2012 via mobile
not worth continuing on with you.
Nikk.m - February 8, 2012
Youre almost too smart for your own good.
jefu - February 8, 2012 via mobile
ummm...
Isn’t it helpful to give some context to facts bro? Facts, in a vacuum, are actually quite unhelpful. Philly Warrior added some context that seems quite relevant. I would say he in fact did read the piece, that he made a compelling point, and that you seem confused.
will1998 - February 8, 2012
Perhaps this is my fault for not explaining myself very well. I dont have a problem with his argument. Thats not what i was refuting. I was talking specifically (and only) about the title of his post. Again, not the content within it, just the title.
jefu - February 8, 2012 via mobile
Man you are so right. The lack of FTAs is totally not a problem and the numbers they’re putting up aren’t at all historically low for a winning team.
yosoysean - February 7, 2012
I figured that was the argument. The title alone made me not want to read it, and I’m glad I didn’t.
jefu - February 7, 2012
He did make some good points. But he compared the Sixers this year to the Mavs last year based on placement in the FTA rankings rather than the raw number, which is silly.
It wasn’t so much of a counter argument as much as saying that the Sixers should be getting more FTAs in future games.
yosoysean - February 7, 2012
I actually find last years Mavs as a relevant counter point to Mike’s article. The Mavs found a way to overcome it, and so far the Sixers have this year as well with a historic turnover rate. If the Sixers start actually making the free throws they get, and continue to turn the ball over at a historic rate, an continue to play excellent defense, they can overcome a lack of getting to the line. Now, do I think “overcome” means they’re a championship team? No, but I don’t think they’re a championship team even if they do get to the line. Overcome, in this sense, means they can reach their potential.
Derek Bodner - February 8, 2012
If all player development remains constant, what is their potential?
jefu - February 8, 2012 via mobile
I didn’t say player development, I said team potential, meaning their potential effectiveness this season.
Derek Bodner - February 8, 2012
The Mavs did attempt about 4 more per game than the Sixers, shooting about 6 percentage points higher than the Sixers currently do now. The Mavs had the best mid-range go-to guy in the league last year to pair with 3 point shooting more likely to hold up over the post season than with the Sixers. I think it’s a big problem for the Sixers. I don’t think it’s their biggest problem, however. In the post season, with Brand/Thad/Hawes as the big man threesome getting the most minutes, we will get pummeled on the O glass the deeper we get into the post season. Also, Collins and the players still don’t know how to win close games. Free throws are a part of that, but there are several bigger reasons they don’t win them than the free throws, at present.
wannabgm - February 9, 2012
I never really watched the “old” Elton Brand, but wow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCfIhh1GKwo
tst29 - February 7, 2012
Guy was a top 5 big man back then. He was getting 20 and 10 when the other guys getting it were Shaq, Duncan, and Garnett.
BrandonB - February 7, 2012
he can still do that now, just at half the speed and against point guards
jefu - February 7, 2012
The Sixers offense is predicated on getting the players open shots, which tends to lower the number of foul calls. It’s only when they run picks or players drive inside that they will get any calls. Or, when their bigs are healthy, and are posting up. I think with Hawes and Vuce back, you’ll see more fouls being called.
Lou Williams is clearly the best scorer on the team; although he and Andre should be enough scoring, I want to see more of Evan Turner. If anyone has the game to get to the line besides Lou, it’s Evan, with his moves and his ability to take a foul and still make the bucket.
A big part of free-throw percentage is who is shooting them. The whole team is dragged down because Andre is having a bad year. There really is no excuse for a good 28 yr. old pro basketball player to not be able to make free throws at 80%. He can work on it, bu I don’t want him on the free throw line at the end of a tight game. Putting the ball in Lou’s hands, with Evan and the bigs should win a lot of games for us, even if we don’t get to the foul line.
The number of wins is not an outlier, the team does a great job of running it’s offense and shutting the other team’s primary scorers down. It is a solid winning strategy that the Sixers have taken to a new level. We have a lot of draft picks that are all developing together, and that in itself is pretty special, and so are the players. Based on talent ten players deep, the Sixers are as good as any team in the NBA. Our 2nd unit is better than a lot of teams first units. Their ability to win against good teams like the Hawks and Bulls without their bigs shows just how talented this crew is.
RickoT - February 7, 2012
Didn't Iggy have problems
with injuries? Especially last year with an Achilles injury.
BIBTD - February 7, 2012
last year is the only year he’s had an injury problem
Dan Pearson - February 7, 2012
Not really true. He had a nagging back injury a few years ago, but played through it
Derek Bodner - February 8, 2012
Hawes and Vucevic posting up? Ha.
yosoysean - February 7, 2012
I think there's still a chance of seeing Vuce post up a bit more; less so for Hawes.
But I think it’s partly by design. Doug puts them in the high post to take advantage of their decent mid-range game and how it opens up passing lanes.
J.P.Melle - February 8, 2012
vuce was actually a pretty good post player in college.
mrprice33 - February 8, 2012
He didnt have the Bynums or Cousinses pushing against him
Nikk.m - February 8, 2012
Not having a "superstar" hurts us in the FT department.
Guys like Lebron, Wade, Kobe and even Griffin get a lot of calls go their ways. It seems as if opposing teams get more calls go their way than ours. It’s a shame that the NBA has the worst officiating out of the four major sports.
Tj Singh - February 7, 2012
Is it possible the reason the Sixers haven’t shot so many free throws is because they haven’t been involved in too many close games. In close games in which you’re leading more fouls come your way but the Sixers have largely not been in that situation this year. Now I agree that their FT rate is a concern and they aren’t good at getting to the line but they are losing out on the close game FTs that many teams get the benefit of.
iladelphia - February 7, 2012
it could be part of the reason, but I wouldn’t suspect it to make that big of a difference. Not a large majority of games are decided down to the wire where one team has to resort to desperation fouling.
The sixers are taking (and making) a lot of their shots away from the basket. I find this interesting given that their defense is designed to give opposing teams the open 20-footer as it’s the worst shot to take.
jefu - February 7, 2012
Like I said they aren’t particularly good at getting to the line although they do have guys that can get to the rim. They do settle for jumpers a little too often but I feel like this Sixers team has played an unusually low amount in any type of close game scenarios at the end of the game. That has to have some effect. I suppose also that another area where they’re being hurt is the fact the lack of the superstar means they don’t get any superstar calls.
iladelphia - February 7, 2012
As I said, they had a lot of blow-outs this year, but those disproportionate blow-outs wouldn’t necessarily mean they would have more down-to-the-wire games in a regular season. So far this season they have played a total of 25 games and they have had 7 or 8 close games, so a little less than a third. I’m not sure what the average ratio is for close-games to non-close games, but it shouldn’t be drastically different.
The superstar thing is certainly an issue, but not as big as overall shot selection. If you look at the roster, they have bigs who step out to shoot jumpers rather than post up, a point guard who doesn’t or get fouled often enough (this has always been an issue with him), Thad who is a finesse player and tends to shy away from contact, and Iguodala who career-wise gets to the line at a good clip, but has reduced his overall amount of shot attempts this season, and is consequentially getting to the line less often (and no, his crappy FT% doesn’t make this a good thing…it’s usually always better to go to the FT line).
jefu - February 7, 2012
Low amount of free throw attempts is definitely something to look at. I still think we will win a lot games in the regular season. When the playoffs come and defenses tighten up and the game slows down I think it’s more important to be able to get better shots and get to the line.
jrb5094 - February 7, 2012
This is an issue. It’s also not a surprise. When you blow out as many teams as the Sixers have, and don’t really take the ball to the basket very much then those are two big factors in why this team isn’t getting to the line much.
That and apparently the NBA still doesn’t think they deserve any calls, ever.
EREX21 - February 8, 2012
There's a flip side to this.
The lack of penetrating the defense may be playing a part in their absolutely historic lack of turnovers. I think Doug’s somewhat intentionally keeping the decision making simple. It’s leading to a lack of getting to the line, and no offensive rebounds, but so far has been a net positive.
That’s obviously only some of it though. A (big) part of it is players who have never shown the ability to get to the line consistently, especially as we transition to featuring Jrue, Thad, and Turner more than Iguodala.
Derek Bodner - February 8, 2012
I think keeping guys closer to the perimiter helps them defend the transition game when the bucket doesn’t go in, helping them get back on D.
Nikk.m - February 8, 2012
There might be something to this. Has there been any indication from Doug that they are particularly unhappy with their FTA and FTR? Obviously every team would like to go to the line more, but I haven’t heard anything from Doug that made me think he was worried/surprised by this issue.
mrprice33 - February 8, 2012
Their drivers (minus lou) are also their best defenders. Driving and possibly turning the ball over keeps their best defenders from getting back and defending in transition.
jefu - February 8, 2012 via mobile
Haven’t looked at the numbers, from from watching him Turner gets to the line alright, when he gets the ball.
J.P.Melle - February 8, 2012
I think he’s third on the team in FTR behind Iggy and Lou
mrprice33 - February 8, 2012
I disagree with your premise that free throws attempted are directly linked to team winning %. I do believe there is a secondary link, but it is certainly not cause and effect based. Additionally I think there are some reasons why that secondary link is less significant for this sixers team. So I’m going to play the contrarian a bit here.
Reasons:
1. Why does dwight howard take so many free throws? (Give you a hint, because he’s a very dominant player in live action and sucks at shooting free throws) So, does that mean because the magic as a team shoot a lot of free throws they should have a better record than the sixers? Complete horse shit.
2. Using the eyeball test, fouls in games tend to occur when a single player is a one man wrecking crew. The opposing team gets frustrated, or just can’t keep up athletically so instead of a charge, it’s a blocking foul, or because of a pump fake, the defender goes in the air and the offensive player jumps into him. The fact is the NBA is a superstar driven league and the sixers don’t have one. That doesn’t make them somehow less likely to win.
3. You mention a fear that when the “shots go cold” they’ll be in trouble, I disagree with that because the sixers as designed are uniquely suited to handle that type of cold streak over typical NBA playoff teams. We lack a super star, but have 8 players averaging over 9pts/game. When AI played here, if he went cold, and wasn’t getting free throws (which seems impossible given his style of play), we lost, and lost badly because no one could take his place and he would continue shooting the whole damn game even if he wasn’t making it. That doesn’t happen here. If player A goes cold, he stops shooting and other people are more than capable of stepping up.
4. You mentioned this in your article, but when you’re the best defensive team in the league by a fair margin, you’ll keep yourself in games even when you’re not maximizing the charity stripe. A great example of that in college ball is drexel’s team this year, even though masset (spelling) is proving to be a fairly prolific guard in his soph year, the team wins on defense, and wins consistently. When you’re a less talented team (like the sixers due to lack of said superstar) defense can cause you to perform above the sum of your parts. AND THAT DOESN’T STOP FOR THE PLAYOFFS!
5. And the last point i’ll make, in regarding end of game fouls. I don’t know where to get this data, but if you could run your analysis based on quarters 1-3 (and drop 4) I’d love to see where the sixers are and if that dramatically changes your analysis. My guess would be there would be a statically significant change. The sixers have beaten teams by historically significant margins thus far this year, and I think the amount of fouls not occurring at the end of games is likely to move them up from the bottom of the league to the lower portion of the middle of the pack, which would render your analysis irrelevant.
Supra98x - February 8, 2012
Thanks for rendering my analysis irrelevant, then. That was easy.
Michael Levin - February 8, 2012
you got owned, just admit it :)
Supra98x - February 8, 2012
I’ll admit ownage when it happens but basically this post is comprised of a few facts:
1. The Sixers don’t shoot a lot of free throws.
2. The Sixers are on pace to be the winningest team in NBA history averaging less than 20 FTs per game.
3. It’s not good that they don’t shoot a lot of free throws because when the playoffs come around, things tighten up and they will need to find a way to score different ways.
The thought that since they’ve been blowing teams out, their FTR is down is a good consideration but it does not “render my analysis irrelevant”, though it does make you unnecessary confrontational – so thanks.
Here’s the six games so far this season that were decided by 6 points or less:
L @ Portland – 19 FTs
L @ Utah – 29 FTs
L @ NYK – 18 FTs
L v. Denver – 19 FTs
W v. Orlando – 19 FTs
W v. LAL – 17 FTs
For the season they’re averaging 18.96 free throws per game. During those six games where they’re supposedly more likely to draw fouls at the ends of games, they are averaging 20.17 free throws per game. A very minor bump, all things considered.
I’m going to ignore the idea that since the Sixers have depth, they won’t ever go through cold shooting stretches. That’s absolutely absurd.
Michael Levin - February 8, 2012
a reversal of ownage, perhaps?
jefu - February 8, 2012
Interesting stat about FTR. There are 2 other winning teams under 20% FTR. 1 of them is the Spurs. The other? The Bulls. Weird.
mrprice33 - February 8, 2012
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